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Indian Business Confidence Falls to Pre-Modi Level

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-Production Lowest Since July 2013

MUMBAI, India /PRNewswire/ — Sentiment towards the current business environment and expectations for the future are now both back to pre-Modi levels in a blow to the government as it completes its first year in office.

The MNI India Business Sentiment Indicator, a gauge of current sentiment among BSE listed companies, fell by 2.5% to 62.3 in May from 63.9 in April. The fall in business sentiment left it at the lowest level since April 2014 and in hand with declines in output and orders points to a significant deterioration in business activity. Overall sentiment has reacted positively to the two cuts to benchmark interest rates this year from the Reserve Bank ofIndia, although their impact has proved temporary.

Companies reported a significant weakening in both domestic and export orders. New Orders fell sharply to 57.1, the lowest since May 2013, while Export Orders declined to 53.6, the weakest since June 2013. The recent weakening of the rupee has yet to have any impact on overseas demand. In contrast, firms saw the weakness of the currency as a negative with adverse implications for business in May. The indicator which measures the Effect of the Rupee Exchange Rate fell to a four-month low of 45.2 in May, with companies concerned about the increased cost of imports.

Input Prices increased to 58.6 in May from 55.9 previously, the highest since October 2014 and look to have troughed in February. So far, weak demand and competition have kept Prices Received capped although firms’ expectations for the future have been rising in recent months.

Production declined to a near two-year low in May and evidence from the survey suggested that Narendra Modi’sambitious “Make in India” project is failing to get off the ground. Manufacturing companies were the least ambitious about their future production plans in May, posting the fifth consecutive decline.

Commenting on the latest survey, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators Philip Uglow said, “The May report confirms that the trend in business activity is down with overall sentiment, output and orders all continuing to fall from the Q4 peak. Along with the continued soft official data on production and exports, and the low level of inflation, we expect the RBI to decrease rates further at the June 2 monetary meeting.”

For further information, please contact:

Naomi Pickens

Public Relations

naomi.pickens@deutsche-boerse.com 

+1-212-669-6459

Editorial Content:

Philip Uglow

Chief Economist, MNI Indicators

Notes to Editors

Please source all information to MNI Indicators.

MNI India Business Sentiment is a monthly poll of Indian business executives at companies listed on BSE (formerly known as the Bombay Stock Exchange). Companies are a mix of manufacturing, service, construction and agricultural firms.

Respondents are asked their opinion on whether a particular business activity has increased, decreased or remained the same compared with the previous month as well as their expectations for three months ahead, e.g. is Production higher/same/lower compared with a month ago?

Diffusion indicators are then calculated by adding the percentage share of positive responses to half the percentage of those respondents reporting no change. An indicator reading above 50 shows expansion, below 50 indicates contraction and a result of 50 means no change.

Data is collected via telephone interviews. More than 400 companies are surveyed each month. The survey has been in place since November 2012.

About MNI Indicators

MNI Indicators, part of Deutsche Borse Group, offers unique macro-economic data and insight to businesses and the investment community. We produce data and intelligence that is unbiased, pertinent and responsive. Our data moves markets.

For more information, visit our website at www.mni-indicators.com.

Source: MNI

Written by asiafreshnews

May 28, 2015 at 6:04 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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