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Saxo’s Visiting Chief Economist and Market Analyst Jointly Publish Report on China’s Economic Outlook

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2011-05-13 19:51 


HONG KONG, May 13, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia/ — Steen Jakobsen, Visiting Chief Economist of Saxo Bank; and Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst of Saxo Capital Markets jointly published a report on China’s economic outlook. The full report is as follows:

China – Still walking the tightrope between inflation and growth?

Steen Jakobsen, Visiting Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

China’s politically-sensitive trade surplus ballooned to US$11.4 billion in April as exports hit a record monthly high. Exports rose 29.9 per cent year-on-year to $155.7 billion. While exports to the rest of Asia remain strong, exports to US (+25% y/y) and Europe (+27% y/y) registered slower growth than in March. The volume peak is due to global slow-down in growth.

Lower imports were a main driver for the rebound in the trade surplus and would appear to confound the long-term aim of increasing domestic consumption. However, we feel that the rest of Asia need not worry about the slower Chinese imports this month as they seem to be reverting back to mean levels going back to 2004 (even with the 2009-10 volatility).

The sharp rebound in the trade surplus provided more ammunition to the US in the midst of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue as it tries to persuade China that huge global imbalances are linked to its currency policy. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s push early in the dialogue was a repeat of  previous meetings where China’s need for a more flexible exchange rate and more open capital markets was at the top of the economic agenda.

Even though the Yuan has strengthened five percent against the dollar since last June when Beijing pledged greater flexibility — the gains have come about during a sustained period of US dollar weakness and these gains have not been matched against other currencies — notably the EUR and JPY.

There are still cries from some critics who claim the Yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 per cent. The United States has been the lead singer in a chorus of international calls for a stronger unit, claiming China’s currency control gives its exporters an unfair trade advantage by making their products artificially cheap. An official from the Ministry of Commerce of the People’s Republic of China said the forex argument over the trade issue between the world’s two largest economies was “not founded” and the way to resolve the trade imbalance is to encourage US exports to China and not restrict Chinese exports to the US.

There is still some doubt whether the US pre-occupation with forcing a stronger Yuan on China will be the be-all and end-all to solve global imbalances. However, recent PBOC comments suggest they are more approachable to Yuan appreciation as “another” tool to use in its inflation fight.

Inflation is currently still the main concern for China. The April CPI report is expected to show inflation considerably above objective of 4%-ish and using GDP deflator the true inflation levels are closer to closer to 8% than 6%.

Despite China hiking rates 4 times since October, accompanied by other significant moves in reserve ratio requirements, there is clear risk that China has done too little to contain inflation. While this may be understandable as they are trying to maintain growth momentum and securing a potential soft-landing, it also has its dangers as ‘hot money’ continues to flow into China.

We do feel that there will movement in China’s forex policies towards a stronger Yuan going forward as it will help contain inflation. There is also a need to increase access to foreign holdings for the Chinese as this will also help in the fight against inflation.

We have also seen China banks under pressure to control loan growth, and the banking system needs to be modernized in product range to cater to the increasing need for diversification by Chinese companies and individuals which would also help alleviate pressure on inflation.

Disclaimer:

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (“Saxo Capital Markets”) holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (Dealing in securities license) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (Leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses issued by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

At the time of writing neither the author(s) nor Saxo Capital Markets holds any shares in securities mentioned in this Article.

The author(s) and Saxo Capital Markets are not responsible for and not liable to any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or any other information contained herein. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Capital Markets that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially in leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Investors should carefully consider their financial situation and consult their professional advisors as to the suitability of their situation prior to making any investments.

For further information, please see
www.saxomarkets.com.hk

About Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited

Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited (SCM HK) is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the Copenhagen-headquartered online trading and investment specialist. The company holds a Type 1 Regulated Activity (dealing in securities) and Type 3 Regulated Activity (leveraged foreign exchange trading) licenses issued by the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong.

SCM HK offers local trading services and expertise to private and institutional clients via SaxoTrader, its award-winning multi-asset trading platform. SaxoTrader is available directly through Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited or through one of its institutional clients. White Labelling is a significant business area for Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited, and involves customising and branding of its online trading platform for other financial institutions and brokers.

The Group operates in 15 countries globally, with offices in Australia, the Czech Republic, France, Greece, Italy, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Switzerland, UK, and the United Arab Emirates.

The Saxo Bank Group has won multiple industry accolades for its outstanding technology, products and service. In 2010, the Group was awarded “Best Online Trading Platform” by Shares magazine. The Institutional arm of the business also won “Best White Label Solution Provider” by World Finance and “Best Re-labeling Platform” by Profit and Loss.

For more information, please visit www.saxomarkets.com.hk

About Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank A/S

Steen Jakobsen was appointed to the position of Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist in March 2011 after two years’ absence. During that period, he served as Chief Investment Officer for Limus Capital Partners. Prior to his departure in early 2009, Steen was with Saxo Bank for almost nine years as Chief Investment Officer.

Steen has more than 20 years of experience within the fields of proprietary trading and alternative investment. He started his career at Citibank N.A. Copenhagen and moved to Hafnia Merchant Bank as Director, Head of Sales and Options. In 1992, he joined Chase Manhattan in London as VP, Head of Scandinavian Sales, and then the Chase Manhattan Proprietary Trading Group. In 1995, he worked as a Proprietary Trader and Head of Flow Desk at Swiss Bank Corp, London before joining Christiania (now Nordea) as Global Head of Trading, FX and Options in 1997. Steen was the Executive Director in the Global Proprietary Trading Group of UBS New York in 1999.

Steen studied Economics at Copenhagen University.

About Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

Andrew Robinson has close to 30 years of experience in the financial markets and worked in key financial centers in London, Europe and Singapore. His expertise lies in FX, short-term interest rate products and precious metals.

Andrew joined Saxo Capital Markets in 2008 and currently writes a daily market commentary for the Asian FX trading session. He also contributes regularly to the Saxo Capital Markets’ blog (http://saxocapital.blogspot.com/) and contributes articles with an Asia perspective to regional print media.

Andrew is a regular contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters.

Media contacts:

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd
Celeste Fong
+65-6303-7713
xcfo@saxomarkets.com.sg

SOURCE Saxo Capital Markets HK Limited

Written by asiafreshnews

May 16, 2011 at 3:00 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Saxo Visiting Chief Economist and Market Analyst Jointly Publish Report on China’s Economic Outlook

leave a comment »

2011-05-13 16:55

SINGAPORE, May 13, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia/ — Steen Jakobsen, Visiting Chief Economist of Saxo Bank; and Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst of Saxo Capital Markets jointly published a report on China’s economic outlook. The full report is as follows:

“China – Still walking the tightrope between inflation and growth?”

Steen Jakobsen, Visiting Chief Economist, Saxo Bank
Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

China’s politically-sensitive trade surplus ballooned to US$11.4 billion in April as exports hit a record monthly high. Exports rose 29.9 per cent year-on-year to $155.7 billion. While exports to the rest of Asia remain strong, exports to US (+25% y/y) and Europe (+27% y/y) registered slower growth than in March. The volume peak is due to global slow-down in growth.

Lower imports were a main driver for the rebound in the trade surplus and would appear to confound the long-term aim of increasing domestic consumption. However, we feel that the rest of Asia need not worry about the slower Chinese imports this month as they seem to be reverting back to mean levels going back to 2004 (even with the 2009-10 volatility).

The sharp rebound in the trade surplus provided more ammunition to the US in the midst of the US-China Strategic Economic Dialogue as it tries to persuade China that huge global imbalances are linked to its currency policy. US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s push early in the dialogue was a repeat of previous meetings where China’s need for a more flexible exchange rate and more open capital markets was at the top of the economic agenda.

Even though the Yuan has strengthened five percent against the dollar since last June when Beijing pledged greater flexibility — the gains have come about during a sustained period of US dollar weakness and these gains have not been matched against other currencies — notably the EUR and JPY.

There are still cries from some critics who claim the Yuan is undervalued by as much as 40 per cent. The United States has been the lead singer in a chorus of international calls for a stronger unit, claiming China’s currency control gives its exporters an unfair trade advantage by making their products artificially cheap. China’s commerce minister Chen Deming said the forex argument over the trade issue between the world’s two largest economies was “not founded” and the way to resolve the trade imbalance is to encourage US exports to China and not restrict Chinese exports to the US.

There is still some doubt whether the US pre-occupation with forcing a stronger Yuan on China will be the be-all and end-all to solve global imbalances. However, recent PBOC comments suggest they are more approachable to Yuan appreciation as “another” tool to use in its inflation fight.

Inflation is currently still the main concern for China. The April CPI report is expected to show inflation considerably above objective of 4%-ish and using GDP deflator the true inflation levels are closer to closer to 8% than 6%.

Despite China hiking rates 4 times since October, accompanied by other significant moves in reserve ratio requirements, there is clear risk that China has done too little to contain inflation. While this may be understandable as they are trying to maintain growth momentum and securing a potential soft-landing, it also has its dangers as ‘hot money’ continues to flow into China.

We do feel that there will movement in China’s forex policies towards a stronger Yuan going forward as it will help contain inflation. There is also a need to increase access to foreign holdings for the Chinese as this will also help in the fight against inflation.

We have also seen China banks under pressure to control loan growth, and the banking system needs to be modernized in product range to cater to the increasing need for diversification by Chinese companies and individuals which would also help alleviate pressure on inflation.

Disclaimer:

Saxo Capital Markets Pte. Ltd. (“Saxo Capital Markets”) is licensed as a Capital Market Services provider and an Exempt Financial Advisor, and is supervised by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.

At the time of writing neither the author(s) nor Saxo Capital Markets holds any shares in securities mentioned in this Article.

The author(s) and Saxo Capital Markets are not responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or any other information contained herein. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Capital Markets that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially in leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.

You should carefully consider whether trading in leveraged products is appropriate for you in the light of your financial circumstances. You should be aware that dealing in products that are highly leveraged carry significantly greater risk than non-geared investments such as share trading. As such, you could both gain and lose large amounts of money. You may sustain losses in excess of the moneys you initially deposit and also in excess of the margin required to establish and maintain any positions in leveraged products.

For further information, please see:
http://sg.saxomarkets.com/about-us/general-disclaimer

About Saxo Capital Markets

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Saxo Bank A/S, the Copenhagen-headquartered online trading and investment specialist. It serves as the Asia Pacific headquarters and holds a Capital Markets Services license from the Monetary Authority of Singapore. Saxo Capital Markets also holds a Commodity Broker licence from The International Enterprise Singapore.

Clients can trade Forex, CFDs, Stocks, Futures, Options and other derivatives via SaxoWebTrader and SaxoTrader, its leading multi-asset online trading platforms.

SaxoTrader is available directly through Saxo Capital Markets or through one of its institutional clients. White labelling is a significant business area for Saxo Capital Markets, and involves customising and branding of its online trading platform for other financial institutions and brokers.

In 2010, Saxo Bank was awarded “Best Online Trading Platform” by Shares magazine. The Institutional arm of the business also won “Best White Label Solution Provider” by World Finance and “Best Re-labeling Platform” by Profit and Loss.

For more information, please visit http://www.saxomarkets.com.sg

About Steen Jakobsen, Chief Economist, Saxo Bank A/S

Steen Jakobsen was appointed to the position of Saxo Bank’s Chief Economist in March 2011 after two years’ absence. During that period, he served as Chief Investment Officer for Limus Capital Partners. Prior to his departure in early 2009, Steen was with Saxo Bank for almost nine years as Chief Investment Officer.

Steen has more than 20 years of experience within the fields of proprietary trading and alternative investment. He started his career at Citibank N.A. Copenhagen and moved to Hafnia Merchant Bank as Director, Head of Sales and Options. In 1992, he joined Chase Manhattan in London as VP, Head of Scandinavian Sales, and then the Chase Manhattan Proprietary Trading Group. In 1995, he worked as a Proprietary Trader and Head of Flow Desk at Swiss Bank Corp, London before joining Christiania (now Nordea) as Global Head of Trading, FX and Options in 1997. Steen was the Executive Director in the Global Proprietary Trading Group of UBS New York in 1999.

Steen studied Economics at Copenhagen University.

About Andrew Robinson, Market Analyst, Saxo Capital Markets

Andrew Robinson has close to 30 years of experience in the financial markets and worked in key financial centers in London, Europe and Singapore. His expertise lies in FX , short-term interest rate products and precious metals.

Andrew joined Saxo Capital Markets in 2008 and currently writes a daily market commentary for the Asian FX trading session. He also contributes regularly to the Saxo Capital Markets’ blog (http://saxocapital.blogspot.com/) and contributes articles with an Asia perspective to regional print media.

Andrew is a regular contributor on CNBC, Bloomberg and Thomson Reuters.

Media contacts:

Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd
Celeste Fong
+65-6303-7713
xcfo@saxomarkets.com.sg
SOURCE Saxo Capital Markets Pte Ltd

Written by asiafreshnews

May 16, 2011 at 2:42 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

Pink Elephant Announces 2011 IT Management Conference Dates for Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong

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2011-05-13 13:38
A “Call To Action” For IT Leaders & IT Service Management Professionals

SINGAPORE, HONG KONG and KUALA LUMPUR, May 13, 2011 /PRNewswire-Asia/ — Pink Elephant today announced the dates for its IT Management Conferences set to take place in South East Asia this fall. This is the third consecutive year Pink Elephant has held conferences in the region and dates are September 12-13 in Kuala Lumpur, September 15-16 in Singapore and September 19-20 in Hong Kong.

The event themed “Changes in Latitudes, Changes in Attitudes,” focuses on navigating through today’s ever changing IT landscape to achieve true business value and outcomes.
Pink Elephant has a 15 year history of presenting its IT Service Management Conference and Exhibition annually in North America and held the first ever ITSM event in SEA in 1998. Its annual conference promotes excellence in IT Management best practices and features case studies and information sessions presented by a variety of IT practitioners and consultants.

The Kuala Lumpur, Singapore and Hong Kong conferences will feature similar content and focus on IT governance and IT Service Management best practices, tools and strategies. Panel discussions and peer group networking will be led by authors of the IT Infrastructure Library (ITIL®) V3 books, along with several of Pink Elephant’s most senior executives and consultants.
According to Pink Elephant President, David Ratcliffe, the conference will be a vital forum for senior IT managers to learn about global best practices, “Good IT practices are universal in nature and IT professionals everywhere can gain valuable insights from opportunities like this to share and learn,” he says. “There are large, important IT hubs all over South East Asia, so it makes sense to hold conferences in this region.”

“This year we really aim to assist participants turn their new Knowledge into valuable Results back at the workplace,” continues Ratcliffe, “In fact, we’ve specially designed the format to enable valuable take-aways to be adopted immediately on the first day back at work. Every session ends with strong advice for “This is what you now need to do on your next day back in the office…”

For more information about the conference, please visit http://www.pinkelephant.com/PinkAsia11/
About Pink Elephant

Founded in 1980, Pink Elephant is the leader in providing IT Service Management best practice services. Operating in many locations across the globe including the USA, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, the UK, Netherlands, South Africa, Hong Kong, Malaysia & Singapore, Pink Elephant is the world’s #1 supplier of ITIL® and IT Service Management conferences, education and consulting services.

For more information, visit http://www.pinkelephant.com.

For further information, please contact:

Christina Petovello Communications & PR Manager Pink Elephant Toll Free: 1-888-273-7465, Ext. 282 E-mail: c.petovello@pinkelephant.com

ITIL® is a Registered Trade Mark of the Office of Government Commerce in the United Kingdom and other countries.

SOURCE Pink Elephant

Written by asiafreshnews

May 16, 2011 at 10:43 am

Posted in Uncategorized